Currently, global food production is more than sufficient to sustain the entire human population. The persistence of hunger in various regions stems primarily from distribution inefficiencies rather than absolute scarcity. Beyond armed conflicts and environmental disasters, the way the current global food distribution system is organised, contributes significantly to food insecurity. While immediate food scarcity may not be the primary concern at this moment, the accelerating rate of human consumption presents numerous detrimental consequences for our planet.
This brings us to the significant concept known as the Jevons paradox. This paradox, identified by English economist Jevons, posits that technological advancements improving resource efficiency often result in increased consumption rather than decrease of the resource. His 1865 observation revealed that enhanced coal utilization efficiency led to the increased consumption of coal across industrial sectors. This finding contradicted the intuitive expectation that improved efficiency would reduce resource usage. Subsequently, this phenomenon has been documented across numerous resources and industries.
Production growth is intrinsically connected to population size and individual consumption patterns. Despite widespread awareness about the necessity of reducing consumption and its environmental impact, society continues to demonstrate overconsumption tendencies. Air travel serves as a prime example: while most individuals acknowledge aviation's negative climate impact, relatively few people choose alternative transportation methods like rail for their vacations. This disconnect between environmental awareness and actual behaviour change highlights the complex challenges in addressing overconsumption.
The challenge of reducing consumption appears increasingly insurmountable. Earth Overshoot Day, marking when humanity's annual resource consumption exceeds Earth's regenerative capacity, continues advancing earlier each year, reaching August 1 in 2024. According to the Global Footprint Network's calculations, humanity currently consumes natural resources at 1.7 times the Earth's regenerative rate. This stark reality implies that meeting our current global demands would require 1.7 planets, despite having only one Earth at our disposal.
This relentless consumption growth stems from two primary factors: humanity's seemingly limitless desires and the expanding global population, each seeking their share of resources. While human consumption patterns could potentially be moderated by acknowledging Earth's finite carrying capacity, contemporary society increasingly promotes heightened consumption, particularly through pervasive advertising. Man has become a slave to the supply, as it were.
Population control through effective birth planning in all countries presents one potential solution to population growth. This, however, requires that short-term interests are subordinated to the general, long-term interest, namely, to protect the earth from disasters. The impact of overpopulation extends deeply into natural ecosystems. Virgin territories are increasingly converted for human use, directly affecting our fellow Earth inhabitants - flora and fauna. As their habitats continuously shrink, more species face extinction, disrupting delicate ecological balances.
Addressing unbridled consumption growth requires a dual approach: examining individual lifestyle choices, while considering the collective impact of human activities. In certain regions, population growth persists as an economic necessity. For impoverished communities in Africa or India, children represent financial security for aging parents, capable of contributing to family income from an early age. Notably, as these communities experience increased prosperity, birth rates typically decline as the cost of raising children (including education) begins to outweigh their economic contribution.
The predicament of subsistence farmers illustrates the complex interplay between economic and ecological factors. Forced to cultivate increasingly larger areas due to insufficient compensation for their produce, they face dual challenges: inadequate product pricing and supporting growing families. While expanding cultivation appears economically rational from an individual perspective, it proves ecologically destructive. This short-term solution ultimately damages both natural systems and human welfare.
Effective solutions must address both aspects of this challenge: curbing existing overconsumption patterns while simultaneously managing population growth through thoughtful family planning initiatives. This comprehensive approach offers the best hope for achieving sustainable resource use while preserving Earth's ecological balance for future generations. This dual objective can be achieved by ensuring fair compensation for both producers and agricultural labourers, enabling them to support their families without relying on children for economic security, while simultaneously encouraging mindful consumption habits in more affluent societies to reduce resource strain.
Ruud Bronkhorst
December 2024